As Ethiopian troops withdraw fromSomalia, the Ethiopian government has released a statement saying its missionin Somalia has been accomplished. It says Ethiopian forces, during their twoyear occupation, have eliminated a clear and present danger. However, Ethiopialeaves behind a country in turmoil and one of the world?s worst humanitariancrises.GeorgeWashington University Professor David Shinn, a former US ambassador toEthiopia, spoke to VOA English to Africa Service reporter Joe De Capua aboutwhether Ethiopia can declare ?mission accomplished.?
?Ithink this is?a practical decision by Ethiopia to end an intervention that hasnot gone like they had hoped it would go from the beginning. And it?s makingthe best of a difficult situation. In other words, you do what you have to doto declare victory and leave. But in fact you leave behind far more questionsthan you have answers to,? he says.
DidEthiopia accomplish anything significant during its occupation? Shinn says, ?Atthe very beginning, it probably prevented or at least reduced some prettyhorrible killings and a situation of chaos in Mogadishu. You may recall thatthe Islamic Courts (Union) pretty much evacuated the city very unexpectedly andleft it in the hands of elements of warlords and basically hooligans, who werecarrying out a lot of acts just against the general populace. Ethiopian troopsdid go in those early days, reestablished order pretty quickly and very wellmay have prevented some death and destruction,? he says.
However,the Ethiopians soon faced problems. ?As soon as that was accomplished, thesituation started to deteriorate and has pretty much I think deteriorated eversince simply because most Somalis find it untenable to have an Ethiopianoccupying force, particularly in Mogadishu,? Shinn says.
Askedwhether Ethiopia expected to be in Somalia for two years, the former ambassadorsays, ?I think initially they didn?t even expect to go into Mogadishu. Theycertainly wanted to defeat the Islamic Courts militia, which they did fairlyquickly and handily. And I think their hope was they could do that and thenleave Somalia and somehow or other the Transitional Federal Government wouldtake control of the situation. Well, that never happened. The Ethiopians endedup having to remain and when they were presented with the?unexpectedopportunity of walking unopposed into Mogadishu, they did so. But that also wasto some extent was their undoing because they simply became bogged down there.?
TheTransitional Federal Government now faces its militia opponents withoutEthiopian military assistance.
?Ithink the Transitional Federal Government is so weakened at this point and insuch disarray that it?s almost difficult to refer to it as any sort ofgoverning unit. I think that it is possible, with the departure of theEthiopians, that clan leaders, civil society representatives, moderate Somalis,who just want a return to some sort of stability in the country, couldtheoretically come together and agree upon some kind of new leadership, whichwould involve a variety of different people?and agree to effectively put theirguns down and try and reconstitute some kind of viable regime. That?s a veryoptimistic scenario and that is not the one most likely to happen, certainlynot in the short term. But it is possible,? he says.
Shinnsays moderate Somalis may not be strong enough to take on the hard-line Shabaabmilitia. He says al Shabaab is in the best position to take advantage of the Ethiopianwithdrawal because they are well armed and well organized.
Buthe adds, ?The departure of the Ethiopians does undercut the main argument ofthe extremist al Shabaab group that the Ethiopians must go so that there can bea Somali government. The Shabaab doesn?t really have much of an argument beyondthat,? he says.
Shinn also says that al Shabaab couldlose much of its support if it begins to mistreat average Somalis.