It is probable that the periods of greatest seasonal prevalence of plague will be found to correspond generally with increased prevalence of rat fleas. During the periods when rat fleas are absent or least prevalent, the disease is perpetuated in the form of chronic (subacute) rat plague in a small number of the rodents. The India Plague Commission made and verified this observation.
Cholera epidemics often abate spontaneously and this is believed to be due in part to attenuations of virulence and changes in the cholera organism which may be demonstrated in the laboratory. We can hardly hope for such spontaneous abatements in plague epidemics, as it has been found difficult to attenuate or to intensify cultures of plague bacilli permanently in laboratory experiments with animals. If it is true that plague epidemics are often marked by a preponderance of mild cases in the early days and a gradual subsidence of intensity of the cases as the epidemics wane, we probably will have to look to the susceptibility of our patients for our explanation of this phenomenon, rather than to variations in the virulence of the plague bacilli. If plague bacilli continue to be distributed to susceptible people the disease should continue with a general stability of virulence.
STABILITY OF VIRULENCE OF _B. Pestis_.--According to Strong, stability of virulence is a marked characteristic of _B. pestis_, it having been shown by him that it is difficult to increase the virulence of a very virulent strain or to intensify an attenuated one in laboratory animals, working with monkeys, rats and guinea-pigs.[2] If his observations are correct (and they seem to correspond with the findings of other observers), the oft-recorded occurrence of a preponderance of mild cases of plague in the early days of an epidemic and the gradual subsidence in intensity of the disease as the epidemic approaches its close will have to be explained upon other grounds than those of variability of virulence by attenuation of virulent strains alone. While he admits that _B. pestis_ may become attenuated under certain conditions many times during the course of an epidemic, it may also regain its virulence, he contends, under other conditions.