washington —
A Russian scheme to facilitate natural gas sales to China and other Asian markets through a "gas union" with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan has met political resistance in the two Central Asian countries, at least partly because of unease over Russia’s war in Ukraine.
On Wednesday, Uzbek Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov dashed cold water on the proposal, first made public early last week, saying his nation will never risk its independence for economic benefits.
"If we import gas from another country, we cooperate only based on a commercial contract. We will never agree to political conditions in exchange for gas," he said in a video statement.
"Even if a gas agreement is concluded with Russia, this does not mean a union … Uzbekistan does not border with Russia. Therefore, negotiations are conducted to deliver it through neighboring Kazakhstan. This would be a technical contract … not a union," Mirzamahmudov said.
The scheme was put forward by Russian President Vladimir Putin at a November 28 meeting with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Moscow.
While details of the proposed union remain vague, according to some analysts, the plan makes some economic sense for the Central Asian countries, especially Uzbekistan, which produces barely enough natural gas for its own consumption in winter and has been suffering shortages during cold spell.
As part of a gas union with Russia, a major exporter, they would be able to receive ample supplies through an existing pipeline that runs to the two countries from Russia and then sell surplus gas through another existing pipeline that runs through their territory from Turkmenistan to China.
Russia, meanwhile, would instantly acquire a new means of earning revenue from gas sales to China and possibly other Asian markets, helping it to make up for lost energy sales to Europe because of sanctions imposed in response to the war in Ukraine.
However, the scheme has encountered strong public opposition in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, fueled by fears the deal may come with political strings attached. Many worry that the territorial ambitions of "the northern brother" may extend beyond Ukraine, which like them is a former member of the Moscow-led Soviet Union.
"We have nothing to gain from the Kremlin's gas union and everything to lose," Abdulla Abdukadirov, an Uzbek economist and former official, told VOA. "Russia wants to boost its position here through our strategic resource."
Kazakhstan, which shares a 7,600-kilometer border with Russia and enjoyed $21.5 billion in bilateral trade last year, sees Moscow as a strategic partner and belongs to two Putin-led blocs: the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
But Astana has maintained distance from Moscow during the war in Ukraine and has not recognized Russia's annexation of four partially occupied regions of that country. This has triggered criticism from Russian public figures, who remind Kazakhs that ethnic Russians comprise nearly 16% of their population.
So far, the Kazakh government has said only that it is studying the Russian proposal, while the Uzbek administration had been silent on the matter until Wednesday’s remarks by Mirzamahmudov, the energy minister.
However, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev did not receive Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin when he visited the country last week, even though Russia is Uzbekistan's second-largest business partner, with $7 billion in trade this year.
Mishustin held talks instead with his Uzbek counterpart, Abdulla Aripov, and spoke at a bilateral economic forum in Samarkand.
"Our biggest initiatives are in the energy sector," Mishustin said, arguing that EEU membership would offer Uzbekistan "free movement of goods, services, capital and labor."
The Russian prime minister also pressed Tashkent "to speed up implementation" of a 2018 agreement for the joint construction of a Russian-designed nuclear power plant, which would be completed within 10 years under the supervision of Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear energy agency.
Several officials have told VOA that Uzbekistan is no longer interested in the project, though the government won’t confirm this openly.
Abdukadirov, the Uzbek economist, sees the Russian energy moves as motivated by a desire to undermine recently renewed economic and security partnerships between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.