MR. MORALES: Cuban refugees and many observers point out that human rights and political freedoms under Fidel Castro are few. Cuba's economy has been virtually stagnant for years as the regime tries to balance economic reform and political control of the country. Yet despite a decades-old U.S. economic embargo of Cuba, 76-year-old Fidel Castro remains in power.
Joining me to examine whether the Castro regime might be coming to an end are: Larry Birns, Director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs; and Jon Utley, Robert A. Taft Scholar in Political and Constitutional Systems at the Ludwig von Mises Institute. Both public policy research groups have offices here in the nation's capital.
Jon Utley, let me begin with you. What are the prospects for regime change in Havana?
MR. UTLEY: Well, I don't think there are many. Until Castro passes away, there is almost no chance. The United States is certainly not focusing on Cuba anymore -- with what's going on in the Middle East and then with North Korea -- and Cuba is just on ice. The policy is somewhat paralyzed. The Cuban-American lobby, of course, has strong influence over policy, and nobody wants anything to change. They may say they do, but no one is making any movements. And, of course, Castro himself wants to maintain the dictatorship. So, nothing will change.
MR. MORALES: Larry Birns, do you see it that way?
MR. BIRNS: I think what we are witnessing is the erosion of a policy. There was a certain consensus for a U.S. policy of trying to isolate Cuba. This is a policy that, for decades, was the motivating factor behind Washington's initiatives. I think we are seeing a real across-the-board meltdown. You will find that traditional conservatives feel that the Cuban embargo has long outlived its usefulness.
You now have a very significant bloc of Republican farm state U.S. congressmen and senators who are calling for the normalization of trade and travel to Cuba. In fact, in recent votes, a majority of the members of the lower house [of the U.S. Congress, i.e., the House of Representatives] have voted to lift the embargo against Cuba. And you're seeing prominent businessmen, prominent labor leaders asking for the same.
MR. UTLEY: I think that's true. That's true that there is rethinking among the right in America, the conservatives, about economic embargoes for various countries, including Cuba. However, the Cuban-American lobby, if you will, does not change. I don't think there is movement there. They are the political power in Florida, which is a vital state for President Bush. Until they change, nothing else will.
MR. MORALES: If there is change that's going to come to Cuba, what might it look like? Is it perhaps just waiting for Mr. Castro to leave, either gracefully or to pass away, or something else?
MR. UTLEY: No. I think it's very dangerous. There is no evolution, like in Eastern Europe and Russia. The nomenklatura, the [Communist Party] ruling class, is there with its back to the wall. There is no opening. The U.S. should make an effort to separate Castro from his ruling class. Washington does not do that. I think the chances of a very bloody revolution are possible when Castro dies.
MR. BIRNS: In these things, it is always best to not postpone things to the unknown. What we should be doing right now is fashioning a really active, sensible, rational policy that deals with the leader in place. We shouldn't be thinking about what happens after Castro dies. We should be dealing with Castro.
It might happen, as John suggested, that there will be a Goetterdammerung [i.e., total destruction in a final battle among all sides], that there will be a fight going on between the various wings of the Communist Party and dissidents, those who would like to chuck the entire Castro system. Then, of course, there are the aspirations of the Cuban diaspora in Miami, a million strong. They will want to play a prevailing role in what takes place in Cuba. There is undoubtedly going to be a split between mainlanders [i.e., Cubans in the U.S.] and islanders [i.e., those in Cuba] as to the nature of Cuban governance in the future.
All of this is guesswork. But right now, people are speculating that Raul Castro -- who is only several years younger than his older brother and certainly is not a dynamic figure with a strong hold on the Cuban people -- is not the next leader of Cuba. There is a younger strata of leadership that Castro has been developing. It involves his Foreign Minister and the head of the Congress. These might be appealing people.