Politics, generally speaking, is about reason and passion, intellect and emotion. Elections, on the other hand, always come down to numbers. The party or candidate that gets the larger numbers wins (almost always). With Canada’s 42nd general election looming on Oct. 19, let’s take a look at some of the key numbers at play in the campaign. Readers may be surprised that Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have increased their share of the popular vote each time they’ve faced the Canadian electorate. From a low of just under 30 per cent in 2004, the Tories climbed incrementally in each tilt until hitting almost 40 per cent in the last federal contest. Clearly, if Harper and the Tories record yet another increase in their share of the popular vote this October, a second consecutive majority seems all but assured. Not surprisingly, the Conservatives’ seat-total also rose over that period — from 99 to 124, then to 143, and finally to the 166 seats that provided their first majority. Clearly, if Harper and the Tories record yet another increase in their share of the popular vote this October, a second consecutive majority seems all but assured. However, even a small slip in voter support could significantly reduce the Conservatives’ hold on the House of Commons, thereby returning the party into a minority position — or worse. So, the question to ponder is: have the Harper Conservatives become more popular with Canadians since winning their first majority in 2011, or less? Voters will decide in less than 200 days. If the Conservatives’ incremental rise in vote-share over the last decade surprises, the upward trajectory of the New Democratic Party’s popular vote — nearly doubling from just under 16 per cent to almost 31 per cent between 2004 and 2011 — is simply stunning. The biggest gain, of course, took place four years ago in Quebec where the NDP soared to 42.9 per cent of valid votes (and 59 seats), up from 4.6 per cent (and no seats) in 2004. That dramatic and historic performance overshadows the New Democrats’ significant rise over the same period in Canada’s most populous province, Ontario, where the party grew its vote-share from 18.1 per cent to 25.6 per cent — and from seven to 22 seats. Clearly, the federal New Democrats over the last decade have established a formidable beachhead in central Canada. So, consider this: the 2004 general election — the first in which the late Jack Layton was party leader — ended with just seven of the NDP’s 19 seats coming from Ontario and Quebec. That was 36.8 per cent of his total caucus. In 2011, however, Canada’s two most-populous provinces contributed a whopping 81 MPs to Layton’s 103-member caucus — or 78.6 per cent of the total. Clearly, the federal New Democrats over the last decade have established a formidable beachhead in central Canada. And that raises a question as to the fundamental strategy Thomas Mulcair, who succeeded Layton as party leader in March 2012, will pursue over the next 200 days. Do the New Democrats concentrate their campaign efforts — and focus their election platform — on Quebec and Ontario in an effort to consolidate the historic gains of 2011? Or will the party widen its outlook in the hope of winning new seats in B.C., Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Atlantic Canada, so as to form a majority government or a strong minority? Such are the strategic challenges facing Mulcair’s New Democrats as their party gears up to fight its first-ever election as Canada’s official opposition. Three hundred and thirty-eight parliamentary seats will be contested in the upcoming general election — making 170 the magic number for a majority. In each of the last four tilts, the House of Commons had 308 seats — which put the number required for a majority at 155 — but redistribution has added 15 seats to Ontario, six apiece to B.C. and Alberta, and three to Quebec. Four years ago, Harper’s Conservatives captured 166 seats — sufficient then for an 11-seat advantage over the combined sum of all other parties, but four shy of the total now required for a majority in the expanded House of Commons. Simply, the Tories in October must pick up a handful of additional seats merely to retain their majority. Plus, the loss of any incumbent MP (or previously-held seat) must be offset by a pick-up elsewhere. The New Democrats collected 103 seats in 2011, sufficient to elevate their party to official opposition status. To that total must be added 67 new seats if Mulcair is to guide his party to a majority government in 200 days. Not an impossible task, but daunting nonetheless.