Belarus' authoritarianPresident Alexander Lukashenko said the September 28 parliamentaryelections were conducted in line with his country's laws and were animportant step towards democracy. But observers from the Organizationfor Security and Cooperation in Europe said they fell significantlyshort of international standards.
One-hundred-ten seats wereat stake with 78 opposition candidates appearing on the ballot. Butwhen the final tally was counted, not a single candidate opposed topresident Lukashenko won a seat.
Russia, Belarus' staunchest ally, defended the election results while criticizing the OSCE assessment.
RobertLegvold from Columbia University, says Mr. Lukashenko is very muchdependent on Russia.
"He is dependent on it economically," he said. "Heis dependent on it for political and diplomatic support. Each time heholds an election that is not recognized on the outside, the Russianssign off on it. He knows that and indeed the opposition in Belarusknows that in the long-run, the relationship with Russia remains close.
Butanalysts such as Legvold see cracks emerging in the Minsk-Moscowrelationship.
"There have been frictions over energy because he seesthe Russians as having been heavy-handed," he said. "The most recentepisode of that was last fall, when [Russia's state gas monopoly]Gazprom threatened to cut gas deliveries by half, if the Belarussiansdid not pay the debt that that they have accumulated for the last sixmonths supply about half a billion dollars. And he was forced to paythat."
In addition, Russia has increased energy prices forBelarus as it has done for other customers, such as Ukraine. Moscowsays it wants to end subsidized gas prices and gradually bring them toworld market levels.
David Marples from the University ofEdmonton in Alberta, Canada says Belarus is trying to become lessdependent on Russia for its energy supplies but that will take time.
"Belarushas announced the development of its own nuclear power station over thepast year, in an effort to offset reliance on Russia for imports ofenergy," he said. "It is a long term solution and nothing is likely tobe operational until 2017 and even that might be an optimisticprognosis. But in the long term, you can tell that Lukashenko wouldlike to be more independent of Russia and have more freedom ofmaneuver."
Analysts point to another source of disagreementbetween Moscow and Minsk and that is Mr. Lukashenko's reaction toRussia's brief war with Georgia in August over the separatist regionsof Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
"Belarus was facing a situationwhere Russia was putting intense pressure on it to support its movesagainst Georgia," said David Marples. "And Belarus, for whatever reason- it is hard to read Lukashenko's mind - not only did not reallysupport this campaign of Russia, but it has not recognized SouthOssetia and Abkhazia as independent states - despite Russia not onlywanting Belarus to do this, but even announcing that Belarus was aboutto do this."
"So in that respect, Lukashenko defied Russia andI think this kind of symbolizes his ongoing disputes with primeminister [Vladimir] Putin and also suggests that his relationship with[president Dmitri] Medvedev is not very good either," he added.
Analystssay frictions between Minsk and Moscow could eventually pave the wayfor better relations between Belarus and the West, especially theEuropean Union. Experts point out that president Lukashenko has takenpositive steps this year, such as gradually releasing all politicalprisoners, including former presidential candidate Alexander Kozulin -a key demand from the West.
But analysts also say Mr.Lukashenko must take other important steps such as allowing free andfair elections before serious discussions with the West can takeplace. And they say Mr. Lukashenko must be very careful not to takesteps that would alienate Russia, which still remains Belarus' closestally.