In one sense the world has just entered on a gigantic experiment in the use of earth materials.
The most striking feature of this experiment relates to the vast acquisition of power indicated by the accelerating rate of production and consumption of the energy resources--coal, oil, and gas (and water power). Since 1890 the per capita consumption of coal in the United States has trebled and the per capita consumption of oil has become five times as great as it was. If the power from these sources used annually in recent years be translated roughly into man power, it appears that every man, woman, and child in the United States has potential control of the equivalent of thirty laborers,--as against seven in 1890. Energy is being released on a scale never before approximated, with consequences which we can yet hardly ascertain and appraise. This consideration cannot but raise the question as to the ability of modern civilization to control and coödinate the dynamic factors in the situation.
It is impossible to deduce accurately the capital value of mineral resources from values of annual output, but again some approximation may be made. The profit on the extraction of mineral resources on the whole, considering the cost of exploration, is probably no greater than in other industries (p. 330). If we assume a 6 per cent return, which perhaps is somewhere near the world-wide standard of interest rate for money, and capitalize the value of the world's annual output at this rate, we obtain a world capital value for mineral resources, exclusive of water, of 150 billions of dollars. This assumes an indefinitely long life for reserves. This assumption may need some qualifications, but it is the writer's view (Chapter XVII) that it is justified for a sufficiently long period to substantiate the above method of calculation.
[Illustration: FIG. 2. Commercial (financial) control of the mineral resources of the world.]
[Illustration: FIG. 3. Political (territorial) control of the mineral resources of the world.]
POLITICAL AND COMMERCIAL CONTROL OF MINERAL RESOURCES
The occurrence of a mineral resource within a country does not necessarily mean control by that particular political unit. A citizen of the United States may own a mineral resource in South America. Commercial control of this sort was demonstrated during the war to be of more far-reaching significance than had been supposed, and it became necessary to ascertain, not only the output of the different countries, but the commercial control of this output. Investigation of this subject for twenty-three leading commodities shows that the political and commercial control are by no means the same. These are partly summarized in the accompanying graphs from Spurr.[11] It is to be noted that the graphs show the control of many commodities as it existed in 1913, the last normal year before the war. Changes during and since the war have of course largely altered the situation for certain commodities, notably for iron, coal, and potash. These developments are summarized in the discussion of the individual resources. It is also to be noted that the commercial or financial control of the world's minerals, under the influence of the fostering and protective policies of certain governments discussed in Chapter XVIII, is at present in a state of flux. Considerable changes are taking place today and are to be looked for in the future.