WASHINGTON - Promised talks this month between the United States and North Korea will give President Donald Trump yet another chance to conclude a deal with the reclusive nation, something that has eluded several of his predecessors.
But after three summits and more than two years of on-and-off talks, some analysts are asking just how well Trump’s self-proclaimed prowess as a dealmaker translates to the world of diplomacy.
This week, later in September through a message conveyed in its state media Korea Central News Agency (KCNA).
“I think the record is beginning to become clear that he is not as great a dealmaker as he believes and as he has advertised,” said Alexander Vershbow, who served as an ambassador to South Korea during the George W. Bush administration.
Trump has presented himself as a master dealmaker who can transfer his business dealmaking skills into the world of politics and diplomacy since announcing his candidacy in 2015.
“I make a good deal,” Trump said as he prepared for his presidential bid for the White House in 2015.
“Deals are my art forms,” said the author of “The Art of the Deal” in 2014. “I like making deals, preferably big deals. That’s how I get my kicks.”
Christopher Hill, a chief U.S. negotiator in nuclear talks with North Korea during the George W. Bush administration, said, “I’m skeptical that that type of business dealmaking can really translate into diplomatic so-called dealmaking.”
Wendy Sherman, who served as North Korea policy coordinator during the administration of President Bill Clinton, said if Trump didn’t get a deal in the real estate development market, he could seek another opportunity.
“But when it comes to war and peace, when it comes to the economic prosperity of the United States, things are little bit more complicated,” Sherman said.
Baruch Fischhoff, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s Institute for Politics and Strategy, said Trump’s dealmaking with world leaders is influenced by his dealmaking in the business world.
“Mr. Trump’s business experience is primarily as a real estate developer,” Fischhoff said. “In that business arena, it was possible for him to have major properties go bankrupt and still get funding for new ones.”
In the world of business, deals are often viewed through the lens of cost and benefit analysis, and strategies involved are aimed at maximizing profit while minimizing cost, said Vershbow, the former Bush administration ambassador.
However, in the world of diplomacy, Vershbow continued, costs and benefits cannot always be assessed in monetary terms and strategies involved cannot solely be based on gaining financial advantage.
“In the business world, you’re talking about economic benefits and costs,” he said. “It’s kind of fairly dry but straightforward. In [diplomatic] negotiations, there’re many different factors in terms of building trust between different countries, different cultures, and calculating the interest of third parties who may not directly be involved but could be affected. So it’s more complex undertaking.”
It is in the international system of alliances where Trump’s business calculations tend to overshadow the building of relationships and fostering intrinsic values, said Bruce Klingner, former CIA deputy division chief of Korea and current senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation.
“Trump’s transactional views on the U.S. alliance and the stationing of American troops overseas are at odds with 70 years of post-World War II American strategy,” Klingner said. “Seeking alliances as business transactions, rather than based on [sharing] common values and strategic objectives, is a disservice to the men and women in the U.S. military.”
On the Korean Peninsula, Trump has been there to guard against a North Korean threat. And while Seoul has agreed to pay more, it rejects Trump’s view that it is not paying enough.
In pursuing a denuclearization deal with Pyongyang, Trump began dealing with the North Korean leader himself in a so-called top-down approach toward diplomacy. This had the two leaders beginning the talks rather than adhering to the diplomatic convention of using working-level negotiators to put together a deal before any top-level meeting.
Sherman said, “The president sort of left things at the top and keeps saying what a great relationship he and Kim have.” She continued, “Personal relationships certainly matter. [But] in very complex negotiations, it is not nearly sufficient.”