Consolidation has been the story of the telecom sector in India in the last decade. By the end of 2012, there were 15 different service providers which decreased to 8 service providers by the end of 2021. While there may be 8 service providers providing wireless services by the end of 2021, the top-4 command a market share of more than 99%. In contrast, the top-4 in 2012 had a little over 65% market share. India ranks second only to China in terms of the number of telephone users (both landline & telephone users) in the world. India’s tryst with telecommunication started in British India with the introduction of the Telegraph, witnessing a slow but gradual growth in post-independence India. The establishment of C-DOT in 1984 was a landmark moment with encouragement for indigenous development of Telecommunication in India. The Liberalization, Privatization & Globalization brought about in the 1990s ushered in a great change for the telecom sector & increased demand for telephone connections across the country. The Telephone Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) was set up in 1997 as the regulatory authority for the telecom sector followed by the setting up of Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) in 2000. With the increase in demand for telecom services & the subsequent development & accessibility of better technology, the Government of India opened the telecom sector to private players for offering various services. Over the years, despite a significant increase in the number of telephone users especially mobile users in the country, the number of subscribers of the state-owned BSNL has been declining. The data provided by the Government in response to a recent question in Lok Sabha indicates the extent of this fall in BSNL subscribers. In this story, we look at the trends in subscribers for BSNL & other operators in the country. The data considered for the story is based on the information available with TRAI. Slower growth of Wireless subscribers over last three years As per TRAI, by the end of December 2021, there were a total of 115.46 crore wireless telephone subscribers in India. This is slightly more than the 115.38 crores by the end of 2020. It is a continuation of slow growth observed in 2020, after a fall in the number of subscribers during 2019. By the end of 2018, there were 117.6 crores wireless telephone subscribers in the country, which fell to 115.14 crores by the end of 2019. This contrasts with the continuous year-on-year growth that was observed in the earlier years. By the end of 2012, there were 86.47 crores subscribers which increased to 117.6 crores by the end of 2018, a growth of 36%. Overall, during the 10 years i.e., 2012 to 2021, the growth rate was 33.5%. In fact, the trend in the last 10 years can be categorized into two distinct five-year periods. The first five years witnessed a higher growth rate which slowed down during the second five-year period starting in 2017. A completely different scenario is observed in the case of wireline i.e., Landline connections during 2021. During the 10-year period from 2012-2021, this is the first time that the number of Wireline connections at the end of the year is higher than the earlier year. After a year-on-year decline from 3.08 crores by the end of 2012 to 2.01 crores at the end of 2020, the number of wireline connections increased to 2.38 crores by the end of 2021. BSNL’s market share in Wireless subscribers falls below 10% Over the past 10 years, the wireless telecom industry is in a state of flux in India. While many service providers exited the space, there were new entrants & consolidations. We look at four of the major current wireless service providers and analyse the trends in the number of subscribers over the 10-year period of 2012-2021. BSNL: By the end of 2021, the total number of wireless subscribers of BSNL was 11.43 crores, which is around 10% of the total wireless i.e., mobile subscribers in the country. Compared to the end of 2020, there is a slight fall in the number of subscribers, when it was 11.86 crores. This fall in numbers in 2021 put an end to the increasing trend in the number of BSNL mobile subscribers observed since 2015. The year 2014 witnessed the greatest fall in the number of wireless subscribers from 9.63 crores by the end of 2013 to 8.14 crores by end of 2014. While the number of BSNL mobile subscribers in 2021 is higher compared to 2012, the market share of BSNL among mobile subscribers in the country fell from 11.5% in 2012 to 9.9% in 2021. While BSNL did cede space to other operators, the decline was not dramatic during this period. Bharti-Airtel: Amidst all the churn in the telecom industry, along with BSNL, Bharti Airtel has been a constant presence.
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Consolidation has been the story of India’s Telecom sector in last decade
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