Of all the great European cities, the socialists are at the present moment strongest in Vienna. An able political writer of the present day has said: “The Dualism of the Monarchy (Austria-Hungary) is very nearly dead, and if Austria is to exist at all she must rapidly become tripartite, and ultimately resolve herself into a somewhat loose confederation.”[102]
These domestic difficulties have caused her to gradually lose her influence in the Balkans, and the abdication of King Milan of Servia has proved a still more serious blow to her power in that quarter.
It seems to me impolitic for Russia to go to war with the five million Magyars. It would be better to influence Austria so as to increase her internal discords and foster them by skilful diplomacy if she wished to attain her objects. For instance, to demonstrate against the accession of Prince Ferdinand to the Bulgarian throne, to oppose the Bulgarian loans, and give pecuniary help herself to immigrants from Montenegro to Servia.
The consequence would be that Austria could not possibly remain peaceful when inhabited by bitter anti-Russian Magyars. She would have to make war preparations and spend money, and would thus increase her financial difficulties, and the result would be the breaking down of the Dual Monarchy, “the personal union of fifty-six states,” a mixture of races, religions, and tongues.
A strong and compact confederation can only be obtained by sound financial dealings. Austria once broken down by internal discord, then Constantinople and the Balkans would be Russian possessions.
If Russia is desirous of accomplishing her ends, her great aim must be to prevent any of the great Powers from making an alliance with Austria. Owing to the Franco-Russian alliance, Russia is quite powerful enough to hinder any effective alliance with Germany.
With regard to an alliance with England, there is one strong barrier which, if kept up, will always prevent such a coalition, viz., the Trans-Caspian Railway.
The following ideas would still further separate the two Powers:—
(1) The extension of the railway from Samarcand to Kokan, because from Kokan Russia can threaten to push on her border to Eastern Turkestan, and move southward to Tibet, and from there will be able to threaten the territory of Cashmere, which are the boundaries at present unsettled.