Russian Subversion Campaigns Fail to Stop North Macedonia’s NATO Accession
Contrary to Kremlin’s assertion that North Macedonia is a small country of little strategic importance to NATO, Moscow has invested substantial efforts to undermine Skopje’s prospect of joining the Western defense alliance. However, the Kremlin has failed in its latest subversive mission in the Balkans, decisively defeated by Skopje and Athens, whose determination to end an old name dispute has reinvigorated the region’s Western integration.
A chance to resolve the name dispute finally emerged when the Macedonian and Greek foreign ministers, Nikola Dimitrov and Nikos Kotzias, respectively—in the presence of their countries’ prime ministers, Zoran Zaev and Alexis Tsipras—signed a landmark agreement on the shores of Lake Prespa on June 17, 2018. The involved changing Macedonia’s name to North Macedonia in exchange for Greece’s full support for its northern neighbor’s NATO and EU accession, as well as recognition of the Macedonian nation and Macedonian language.
Remarkably, and despite nationalist opposition at home and Russian interference, both governments stuck to the deal, systematically taking each step to make it a reality. On February 12, when Macedonia’s name change to North Macedonia came into force, the NATO flag was raised in front of the government building in Skopje. The NATO accession protocol, signed in Brussels on February 6, must be ratified by all 29 members of the alliance. The process will likely take several months or a year, during which time Russia is expected to continue attempts at destabilizing the country.
Indeed, Russian officials were quick to claim that by becoming a NATO member, North Macedonia will lose its ability to pursue its own foreign policy. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova also that Skopje will have to pay for NATO’s patronage “...by increasing its defense spending and by taking part in military preparations and operations that have nothing to do with the interests of the people of Macedonia; moreover, it will be unable to conduct a truly sovereign foreign policy.”
Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Federation Council, the upper house of Russia’s parliament, that “joining NATO would bring nothing good either to Macedonia or to the European community.”
“This is more of a symbolic than a practical step, because it is about a small country that does not have any importance to NATO. But this, however, is important for the Alliance given the collision with Russia, which constantly points to the destructive role of NATO as a remnant of the Cold War,” Kosachev told the centrist Nova Makedonija newspaper.
Damir Marusic, the executive editor of The American Interest magazine, told Polygraph.info: “I expect the [Russian] assault to continue. Any hiccups in the implementation of Prespa, or in NATO accession, allows Russia to portray the alliance, and the West in general, as a paper tiger. There is no reason to become less vigilant and active in fighting Russian efforts now just because Prespa is coming into force. On the contrary, the game is just starting.”
According to Marusic, the Kremlin’s objectives “have little to do with North Macedonia qua North Macedonia, and rather operate on the principle of ‘anything that’s a headache for the West is a good thing’.”
“Their main objective is to cause as much trouble as they possibly can,” concurred , a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. “I don’t think they ever really expected to stop Macedonia’s NATO accession, but they like to cause trouble for NATO as they see NATO as the enemy.”
Moscow, however, appears to have devised a long-term strategy for limiting Euro-Atlantic integration and increasing Russian influence in the Balkans. Leaked intelligence reports from Skopje have detailed elaborate tactics used by Russian officials, military intelligence officers, Kremlin’s ideologues, Russian government-sponsored cultural organizations and media outlets, social media influencers, and even the Orthodox Church, to cast a wide net of subversion and disinformation over Macedonian society. Furthermore, the intelligence reports point to a campaign run from the Russian embassy in Skopje, but coordinated by the Russian foreign intelligence service (SVR) center in Belgrade and the Russian military intelligence service (GRU) center in Sofia—an extensive institutional structure for merely aiming to “create trouble” for NATO.