WASHINGTON - The global coronavirus pandemic has done little to stop adversaries, especially China, from targeting the United States and making gains at the country's expense, according to a newly unveiled U.S. intelligence assessment.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) issued the declassified 27-page report Tuesday, a day before top U.S. intelligence officials were set to testify before lawmakers about the most pressing threats in the year ahead.
Beijing, the report said, "will continue its whole-of-government efforts to spread China's influence, undercut that of the United States, drive wedges between Washington and its allies and partners, and foster new international norms that favor the authoritarian Chinese system."
The analysis, representing the conclusions of all 18 U.S. intelligence agencies, further warns that Chinese leadership views the intensifying competition with Washington as part of an "epochal geopolitical shift" and is willing to embrace ever more aggressive strategies to gain the upper hand.
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That aggressiveness, according to officials, includes the pursuit of additional military installations around the world and access agreements "to enhance its ability to project power."
It also involves a growing arsenal.
"China is building a larger and increasingly capable nuclear missile force that is more survivable, more diverse and on higher alert," the ODNI report said, warning that Beijing is trying to ensure it can retaliate against a nuclear attack with nuclear missiles of its own.
U.S. intelligence analysts further expect China to secure a presence in space — with a space station operating in a low Earth orbit in the next three years — and to remain a threat in cyberspace, where it has demonstrated the ability to cause "localized, temporary disruptions to critical infrastructure within the United States."
Yet, U.S. intelligence analysts believe there will be chances for Washington and Beijing to work together.
"Chinese leaders probably will, however, seek tactical opportunities to reduce tensions with Washington when such opportunities suit their interests," according to the ODNI report.
The public assessment, now required by law, is the first since 2019, when for being "passive and naïve" for their assessments of Iran, North Korea and the Islamic State terror group. Efforts by lawmakers to secure a public threat assessment in 2020 failed.
The change in acting leadership of the US intelligence community comes as the Congressional intel committees & have been negotiating for +1 month on when intel leaders would give their annual, public threat briefing
Still, the new assessment echoes themes U.S. intelligence officials have voiced in other public settings, warning that in addition to China, the U.S. will face major challenges from Russia, Iran and North Korea.
Russia, the analysts predict, remains bent on undermining U.S. influence and on dividing and weakening Western alliances, as part of a tit for tat with the United States.
"Russian officials have long believed that the United States is conducting its own 'influence campaigns' to undermine Russia, weaken President Vladimir Putin, and install Western-friendly regimes in the states of the former Soviet Union and elsewhere," according to the report.
"Russia seeks an accommodation with the United States on mutual noninterference in both countries' domestic affairs and U.S. recognition of Russia's claimed sphere of influence over much of the former Soviet Union," it added.
While the latter may lead Moscow to offer to partner with the United States, intelligence officials see few reasons to believe that the Kremlin will dial back on any of its more nefarious activities, whether that means pushing the boundaries in cyberspace, destabilizing Ukraine or eliminating dissidents.
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Concerns about Moscow's military prowess also persist.
"Russia will remain the largest and most capable WMD (weapons of mass destruction) rival to the United States for the foreseeable future," the ODNI report said.