WASHINGTON —
Israel's war against Hezbollah and Hamas, while inflicting considerable damage, has yet to strike a crippling blow to either of the Iran-backed terror groups, according to a top U.S. counterterrorism official.
The acting director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) said Tuesday that the impact of Israeli intelligence operations, along with repeated military airstrikes and ground offensives in Lebanon and Gaza, have severely diminished the ability of both groups to launch new attacks on Israel.
But he cautioned that both groups remain resilient, and in the case of Hezbollah, retain significant capabilities.
"Before the conflict, they [Hezbollah] had built up unprecedented numbers of rockets and missiles and other munitions," the NCTC's Brett Holmgren told an audience in Washington, adding that the Lebanese group was starting at a "very strong point."
And he said while Israeli strikes have decimated Hezbollah leadership, the group's ground forces in southern Lebanon "remain somewhat intact."
Additionally, Israel's actions have done little to damage Hezbollah's reach beyond the Middle East.
"Their external capabilities have largely been untouched," Holmgren said, noting the U.S. and its allies are on alert for any indication Hezbollah may seek to retaliate outside the region.
Hamas, which touched off the war in Gaza when it launched its October 7, 2023, terror attack that killed about 1,200 mostly Israeli civilians, has also suffered greatly, according to the latest U.S. assessments.
"Militarily, they have been significantly diminished," Holmgren said. "They're essentially morphing into an insurgent force on the ground."
Yet despite being forced to keep a low profile and resort to hit-and-run-type tactics, U.S. intelligence sees few indications Hamas has lost its appeal.
"Hamas has been able to recruit new members to its ranks and will likely continue its ability to do so, so long as there is not another viable political option on the ground for these disaffected young men in Gaza to turn to," Holmgren said.
"There has to be a more viable political actor on the ground in Gaza to give these new recruits for Hamas, to give them a better option," he added.
Prior to Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel, U.S. intelligence estimated that the U.S.-designated terror group had between 20,000 and 25,000 fighters, though some estimates put the number at 30,000 or more, citing support from about a dozen other terror groups that had pledged to fight under the Hamas banner.
Hezbollah, according to U.S. estimates, had about 40,000 fighters with "state-like military capabilities."
Holmgren on Tuesday did not elaborate on how many fighters from either group had been eliminated.
Israeli officials, however, have said their forces have killed upward of 14,000 Hamas fighters and more than 2,550 Hezbollah fighters.
The Israel Defense Forces earlier this month said it estimates that about 80% of Hezbollah's arsenal of medium- and short-range rockets has been destroyed.
Health officials in Gaza have said the Israeli offensive there has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children.
Lebanon's Health Ministry said more than 3,000 people have been killed during the conflict, though it does not differentiate between civilians and Hezbollah fighters.
There are growing concerns, though, that the death tolls in Lebanon and Gaza are serving as a spark for other terror groups around the world.
Less than a month after Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel, U.S. counterterrorism officials warned that the event had begun to galvanize other terror groups, including Islamic State and al-Qaida.
Holmgren said it appears the Hamas attack, combined with growing political and economic turmoil, has in fact helped to reenergize other groups.
"ISIS exploited reduced counterterrorism pressure last year to recover and to rebuild as governments shifted attention and resources to the conflict in Gaza," Holmgren said, using an acronym for the Islamic State terror group, also known as IS or Daesh.
Central Syria, he said, had become an epicenter for IS plotting against the U.S. and the West, at large.
And although a series of recent operations by the U.S. and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have again weakened IS, the group continues to benefit from improved finances and resurgent media campaigns, Holmgren said.
The IS affiliate in Afghanistan known as IS-Khorasan has likewise shown resilience.