Harshly suppressed and sometimes slaughtered by Saddam Hussein, Iraq?s Shiites have now reemerged as a religious and political force in the aftermath of war. Comprising at least 65% of the Iraqi population, they are bound to wield considerable power in any postwar government. The question is how much and what kind. There are fears they may try to establish a theocratic state inimical to democracy.
Mostly by foot and by any vehicle available, hundreds of thousands of Shiites have converged on the holy city of Karbala to celebrate their freedom from Saddam Hussein and to urge an early American departure from Iraq. ?No to Saddam,? they chant, ?and no to Bush.?
To back up these words, Shiites have seized control of various Iraqi cities without consulting U.S. forces. Syed Abbas, a leading member of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq or SCIRI, is the self-appointed mayor of Kut near the Iranian border. U.S. officials don?t like him, but are wary of trying to remove him. ?I have been chosen by God,? he insists.
Quietly arriving in Iraq, the new U.S. overseer, Lieutenant General Jay Garner, says Americans will leave fairly rapidly, but speculation in Washington about the length of the occupation runs from a few months to five years.
Time indeed may be limited by Shiite opposition, says Juan Cole, professor of modern Middle East history at the University of Michigan.
?The protests that we have seen, the statements by major Shiite figures as well as the chanting of crowds, demonstrations and so forth suggest that the United States may not have the luxury of that kind of long term timeline for turning Iraq back over to Iraqi rule. The Shiites do not like this idea of Americans staying in Iraq for so long,? Professor Cole says.
Even so, U.S. policy makers are reaching out to Shiites, including SCIRI, says Kenneth Katzman, a Middle East analyst at the Congressional Research Service in Washington. It is SCIRI that is keeping its distance.
?Some of that reflects Iran?s views. Some of it is their own ideology, viewing the United States as perhaps not sympathetic to Islam and Muslims and perhaps somewhat too pro-Israel in their view,? Mr. Katzman says. ?What we are seeing is a lot of that latent tension between the Shiite Islamists and the United States is now becoming much more public and much more pronounced.?
Mr. Katzman believes the Shiite ties to Iran are crucial. Through them, Tehran can expect to have considerable influence in the new Iraqi government:
?A lot of these are Shiite Islamic forces who are somewhat factionalized but all roughly working together in a pro-Iranian camp. There are some differences. Some are less pro-Iranian than others, but in general they reject a U.S.-led process for forming a new government,? he says. ?They believe that the United States should have virtually no role in selecting the interim government, and they seem to be asserting their influence by themselves outside the U.S.-led process.?
Mr. Katzman says the Shiites might create a shadow government in competition with the official one.
We must be willing to live with the results of democracy, however messy, say Americans. But Shiites could put that to a severe test, according to Professor Cole.
?It was inevitable that much of what the will of the Iraqi people represents might be contrary to U.S. strategic interests or policies,? he says. ?It is highly unlikely in my view that the Shiite community of Iraq would be hostile to or negative towards the Hezbollah group in southern Lebanon, which the United States views as a terrorist organization. It is rather unlikely that the Shiites of Iraq will have a strong negative attitude toward Iran, which the United States has called part of an axis of evil. The United States has let genies out of the bottle, which it is not going to be able to control.?
But don?t think Iraqi Shiites are altogether identical to Iranian Shiites, cautions Professor Cole.
?It should not be forgotten that cities like Najaf and Karbala in Iraq have a great deal of religious charisma of their own,? Professor Cole says. ?It is not impossible that figures will emerge among the Iraqi Shiites in those holy cities who will ultimately challenge some of the Iranian clerical leaders for authority within the world Shiite community.?