Will Hamilton City Council accept yes for an answer now that the Provincial and Federal governments have confirmed they will pay 100% of the capital costs to build Hamilton’s first LRT line? Yes. My prediction, it will be a 12-4 or 13-3 vote. Hamilton City Councillors have been all over the map on LRT for the past decade, with career councillors voting for the project one week, and then against the next. Councillors who only weeks ago opposed LRT will do the political math and plot a path to supporting the upcoming operating agreement. How does Council get to 12 votes in favour? Let us start with the firmly opposed who will be extremely performative during the next few weeks. Ward 5 Councillor Chad Collins is looking at the inconvenience/disruption of LRT construction knowing that constituents who vote for him will be most impacted. King Street’s current configuration as an urban highway is very quick for traversing by car. It can be as short as twenty minutes to drive from Centennial Parkway to Dundurn Street. LRT means using the highways as a ring-road and slightly longer driving times (which is how it works in major urban centres). Collins is betting (correctly) LRT will annoy these voters. Ward 5 residents living in the high-density apartments along Queenston Road and in Riverdale will benefit immensely from LRT. Apartment dwellings vote in smaller numbers. Collins is a vote counter. Ward 15 Councillor Judi Partridge is out to convince residents of Ward 15 that the problems of transit and infrastructure in Waterdown are caused by people living in Old Hamilton instead of the result of decisions she has made during the past 11 years. Partridge uses division to cover for her lack of vision. Ward 4 Councillor Sam Merulla has his full Council pension awaiting him at the end of 2022, as he often loves to brag. Merulla just wants attention and opposing LRT will give him it. He has yet to meet a microphone he was not immediately in love with. There are several Councillors who have voted both in favour and against the Light Rail Transit project at various points over the past decade. Of this group, it is possible one may vote opposed. None of them want LRT to fail. Being on the Council that screws everything up is a hard sell come re-election time in October 2022. Ward 6 Councillor Tom Jackson loves his “off-ramps” almost as much as he loves referencing seniors. The Seniors Advisory Committee supports LRT, and with LiUNA now running the political drive to get the LRT operating agreement approved by Council, Jackson will vote in favour. Ward 7 Councillor Esther Pauls entered politics because she wants to help people, whereas too many people run for Hamilton City Council seeking a pay-cheque, pension, and power. On LRT, she listened to people close to MPP Donna Skelly. With the Ontario PC government now firmly in support of LRT, Skelly’s influence is gone. Behind the scenes, Ward 1 Councillor Maureen Wilson has become a political friend for Pauls, and this relationship will help move Pauls to a yes vote. Pauls performs poorly in the limelight of politics. Expect her to deliver an awkward speech about how difficult an issue this is. Now, if Mayor Fred Eisenberger targets Pauls with negative messaging, she may remain a no vote. Ward 9 Councillor Brad Clark will argue that his recent opposition was that the original project was shortened, and Hamilton was being short changed. Clark, who opportunistically changed his position numerous times, is a former Ontario Minister of Transportation and knows that if Hamilton Council turns down yes for an answer [Hamilton Council originally asked for the B-Line LRT], that Hamilton will never see major project funding again. Clark is a frequent HSR rider, including during the pandemic. Expect him to push HSR route changes and improvements for implementation in June 2022. He needs to show his resident there are transit investments which benefit Upper Stoney Creek. Ward 11 Councillor Brenda Johnson will likely come on-board and tie the LRT to holding the line on urban boundary expansion. Ward 12 Councillor Lloyd Ferguson was firmly in favour of LRT, but recently expressed unease with City Council being excluded from the negotiations which landed the deal between the provincial and federal governments. His baseline for a decision has been 100 percent capital funding, which this deal delivers. Ward 14 Councillor Terry Whitehead is likely to return for the final vote. Whitehead wants to run for the federal Liberal Party and this is a priority for the Liberal government. Expect him to be very disciplined, reading from speaking notes for this debate. Ward 10 Councillor Maria Pearson is a regular HSR rider. She has previously supported LRT as phase one of rapid transit in Hamilton.