In the preceding calculations no account is taken of the increasing population of the United States, which we know to be in a compound ratio of more than 3 per cent. per annum; nor of the increase of wealth, proved to be in a higher ratio by the increasing productiveness of the imports on consumption. We shall be safe therefore in considering every tax as growing at the rate of 3 per cent. compound ratio annually. I say _every tax_, for as to those on consumption the fact is known; and the same growth will be found in the value of real estate, if valued annually; or, which would be better, 3 per cent. might be assumed by the law as the average increase, and an addition of 1/33 of the tax paid the preceding year, be annually called for. Supposing then a tax laid which would bring in $100,000 at the time it is laid, and that it increases annually at the rate of 3 per cent. compound, its important effect may be seen in the following statement:
The 1st year 103,090, and reduces the million to $972,000 2d " 106,090, " " " 938,810 3d " 109,273, " " " 899,947 4th " 112,556, " " " 854,896 5th " 115,920, " " " 803,053 6th " 119,410, " " " 743,915 7th " 122,990, " " " 676,719 8th " 126,680, " " " 600,793 --------- 915,913
It yields the 9th year $130,470, and reduces it to $515,382 10th " 134,390, " " 419,646 11th " 138,420, " " 312,699 12th " 142,580, " " 193,517 13th " 146,850, " " 61,181 14th " 151,260 over pays, 85,491 ---------- 1,759,883
This estimate supposes a million borrowed at 7½ per cent; but, if obtained from the circulation without interest, it would be reimbursed within eight years and eight months, instead of fourteen years, or of twenty years, on our first estimate.
But this view being in prospect only, should not affect the quantum of tax which the former circulation pronounces necessary. Our creditors have a right to certainty, and to consider these political speculations as make-weights only to that, and at our risk, not theirs. To us belongs only the comfort of hoping an earlier liberation than that calculation holds out, and the right of providing expressly that the tax hypothecated shall cease so soon as the debt it secures shall be actually reimbursed; and I will add that to us belongs also the regret that improvident legislators should have exposed us to a twenty years' thraldom of debts and taxes, for the necessary defence of our country, where the same contributions would have liberated us in eight or nine years; or have reduced us perhaps to an abandonment of our rights, by their abandonment of the only resource which could have ensured their maintenance.
