The Shiites did not seek confrontation with Americans, says Fawaz Gerges, professor of Middle Eastern Studies and International Affairs at Sarah Lawrence College. They had a wait-and-see attitude.
Professor Gerges says what they have now seen they do not like: namely, the murder of their leader Ayatollah Mohammad Biqir al-Hakim and some 100 of his followers in a bombing outside their mosque in Najaf: ?The danger lies in the fact that the extension of armed attacks into the Shiite areas represents a dramatic, qualitative escalation of violence and shifting tactics on the part of the anti-American coalition in Iraq. And here, it seems to me, the Shiites are being dragged into confrontation against their own will and the goal here is to create chaos and defeat the American project in the country.?
The Najaf bombing inevitably deepens divisions among Shiites, as it was no doubt intended, says Michael Hudson, director of the at Georgetown University. Iraq?s Shia community is now at a crossroads: ?This community has the potential, if it remains unified, to play a major or maybe the major role in some future stable Iraqi government, if that should come about. But it is also a community that is deeply split in a number of ways. Certain leading clerics who enjoy great respect and legitimacy are opting out of the political process. And the late Mohammad Baqir al-Hakim, who had played a qualified, cooperative role with the American occupation regime was, I think, assassinated for that reason.?
The Najaf violence has heightened the fears of Shiites and led to the black-shirted militias, armed with Kalashnikovs, now offering them protection. These militants, says Professor Gerges, are increasingly anti-American and demanding more Iraqi control of security: ?There is a very dangerous power struggle taking place within the Shia community. You have one faction which is led by Moktada al-Sadr, a young, fiery militant cleric and his followers, who would like to establish an Islamic state led by Shiite clerics. This power struggle has the potential not only to create social upheaval within the Shia community but also to militarize and make the Shia community join the armed resistance against the United States.?
From the beginning of the occupation, the Americans have tried to prevent any para-military groups from forming in Iraq, fearing they would lead to division. Professor Gerges agrees that is exactly what they will do: ?You are really transplanting the Afghanistan model into Iraq by having various warlords having their own militias in order to provide security. This is highly dangerous because it might create the foundation for fragmentation in the future in Iraq. And this is why I believe that the American authorities? decision to dismantle the Iraqi army ? more than 350,000 soldiers ? was a terrible blunder.?
Professor Gerges says this decision puts thousands of angry well trained soldiers out on the street where they can plot revenge against the occupation and take it. Perhaps they have already.
The U.S. challenge, says Professor Gerges, is to maintain order while keeping its presence at a minimum.
That involves a contradiction, says Professor Hudson: ?Somewhat unfairly, the Americans have been kind of whipsawed. They have been blamed recently for not having been visible enough among the Shia to help protect them. At the same time, the Americans were saying, ?Well, the Shia asked us to stay away because we would be provocative.? So that is a kind of a lose-lose situation for the United States and the coalition forces that are there.?
Iran is in as deep mourning over the death of Ayatollah al-Hakim as Iraq. Indeed he spent 20 years in exile in Shiite Iran, aiding rebels against Saddam Hussein?s regime.
Professor Hudson is uncertain how Iran will now react to the loss of a chief ally: ?After all, he had lived for many years in Iran, and the organization that he had established ? the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq ? was actually nurtured and I should think supported from Iran. So that was the main institutional linkage of Iran to the Iraqi Shia community, and it is unclear what the future is for this supreme council.?