“Although there is nothing of a secret nature in this letter, its publication in the Press over my signature is very undesirable.”
In reply, Prince Trubetski wrote to me on June 14 as follows:
“I have handed over your telegram, which greatly touched me, to the Mayor and Zemstvo; I will communicate its contents to as many as I can, and I will do everything that is possible to get action taken on it. If it may be considered necessary by the Tsar to end the war, I do not think it should be discussed beforehand in committees. May God help you! My whole heart is with you.”
But the efforts of individuals were powerless to check the march of events. The serious state of Russia’s internal affairs and the hostile—to put the best construction on it—indifference of the people resulted in peace being prematurely concluded. The consequences of making such a peace, by which Japan was recognized as Russia’s conqueror in Asia, will have serious results not only for us, but for all the Powers who have possessions or interests on that continent. The “Yellow peril,” the appearance of which has only recently been foreseen, is now a reality. Notwithstanding her victorious issue from the war, Japan is hurriedly increasing her forces, while China is forming a large army under the guidance of Japanese officers and on the Japanese model. In a very short space of time she and Japan will be able to pour an army of more than 1,500,000 into Manchuria, which, if directed against us, could proceed to take a great deal of Siberia from Russia, and reduce her to a second-rate Power.
We have seen above how the absence of any previous diplomatic arrangements forced us to keep the greater part of our armed forces in European Russia during the war, which fact constituted one of the reasons of our reverses (the Guards and Grenadiers Corps remained in Russia, while the reserve troops fought in Manchuria). We have one consolation in that we now know that our Western neighbours are not pursuing any policy of aggression against us, for they had an excellent opportunity in the years 1905 and 1906[61] to alter the existing frontier had they wished to do so. We may hope, therefore, to be able to come to some understanding with the Powers of Europe by which, should we be again attacked in the Far East, we shall be able to throw the whole of our armed forces into a struggle with either Japan or Japan and China combined. Another reason for our failure is the fact that we were unable rapidly to make full use of such forces as were available, because of the weakness of railway communication between Russia and Manchuria. It is clear that, as matters now stand in the Far East, the laying of a second track over the Siberian line and the construction of a railway along the bank of the Amur are so vital for us that no time should be lost in doing these things. The mere construction of a line along the Amur can help us but little, while a double-track line, even with forty-eight trains in the twenty-four hours, cannot, of course, satisfy all the requirements of the great army we should have to put in the field in the event of a fresh war. In future we shall only be able to rely to a small extent upon the vast supplies of food in Manchuria, and shall be obliged to convey the greater portion not only of our munitions of war, but of our food-supplies, from European Russia and Siberia. It will therefore be necessary to make use of our water communications, for the failure of the attempt to transport supplies in 1905 by the Arctic Ocean and the River Yenissei cannot be considered final. Particular assistance also could be afforded to the army by increasing the population of Siberia, and so at the same time augmenting the local resources necessary for an army. The rich reserves of metals, coals, and timber in that part will assist us in bringing nearer to the Far East not only our food-supply base, but also our war base (for ordnance, ammunition, explosives, etc.).