Jair Bolsonaro during Brazil's independence bicentennial | Image: Alan Santos/Brazil's Presidency/CC 2.0 Before giving the opening speech at the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 20 in New York, Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro (PL, Liberal Party), talked with reporters and hailed his supporters at the hotel's door. In a video published by the BBC, he says the Brazilian population wants the continuation of his government, that he doesn’t believe in polls and that he will win a second term in the first round on Oct. 2. The day before, in another interview, Bolsonaro stated that if the ballots do not give him 60 percent of the votes next Oct. 2, then “something abnormal must have happened with the Electoral Court (TSE, in Portuguese).” The problem is, the same day, another poll showed former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva still ahead of him, with 47 percent of voting intention, against Bolsonaro’s 31 percent. Lula was previously imprisoned for 580 days under corruption charges, but the convictions were then annulled. In the early hours of this Sept. 29, three days away from the elections, Bolsonaro published a thread with a picture of Lula surrounded by political figures from different parties, who are now supporting the former president, and made a case of how they were all part of a system that felt threatened by Bolsonaro himself, concluding: - Quem insiste em falsas memórias do passado ainda não entendeu que vivemos numa nova era. Aqueles que desprezam o povo e seus valores que se acostumem com a falta de sossego. Deus não me deu uma nova vida em 06/09/2018 para ser um gestor, mas para mudar de vez o nosso Brasil! — Jair M. Bolsonaro 2️⃣2️⃣ (@jairbolsonaro) September 29, 2022 Who insists in fake memories from the past hasn't understood yet that we live in a new era. Those who despise the people and their values should get used to the lack of peace. God did not give me a new life in September, 6, 2018 [when he was stabbed, during a campaign act] to be a manager, but to change our Brazil once and for all! The concern and suspicions of a coup attempt or denial to recognize the election results from the current president have been brewing in Brazil for a while. But they are increasing with the elections getting closer, as the possibility of a defeat of the current government, the president's rhetoric questioning the electoral system, and the uncertainty of what will come next looms. Three days before the elections, a note, with Bolsonaro's party's logo on it, once again raised doubts about the safety of the ballots, something quickly dismissed by the Superior Electoral Court. In its own note for the press, TSE says the document's conclusions are “fake and untrue” and disconnected from reality, “gathering fraudulent information and attempts against the Democratic Law State and the Judiciary, especially to the electoral justice, in a clear attempt to embarrass and disturb the natural course of the electoral process.” Bolsonaro and his followers have been feeding the narrative that polls got his election wrong in 2018, which is a lie that is easily disproven. Bolsonaro has also raised suspicions about the safety of the electronic ballots box that got himself and his sons elected many times over the past 20 years. In July, he even invited ambassadors to an event putting the voting system in question without presenting any evidence of such. Global Voices has been asking the Federal Police for access to the investigation that the president affirmed more than once to be public, but the department responsible has yet to respond. In an interview with the main news broadcast of the country, TV Globo’s Jornal Nacional, on Aug. 22, Bolsonaro was reluctant to promise he will respect the elections’ result. He said he will as long as the process is “clean and transparent,” which has been proven already. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) has even accepted suggestions made by the military, which led to the president’s own son, senator Flávio Bolsonaro, declaring the possibility of fraud as close to zero. With Lula leading the polls for months, a tendency seems to have already emerged. But there is a wave of misinformation running on different social media platforms trying to challenge this reality. Jornal Nacional, the aforementioned news broadcast, had to clarify to viewers about a deep fake being shared that showed its anchors presenting a poll with Bolsonaro leading the numbers. “Since Aug. 15, polls by Ipec and DataFolha, showed the Workers’ Party candidate, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, as the one with the bigger percentage of voting intentions. In all of them, Bolsonaro shows up in second place,” explained news anchor William Bonner.
Diplomacy Report
Why fear of a coup attempt is on the horizon in Brazil’s elections
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