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The new report says there is an attack ondemocracy in southern Africa that no one is talking about - AIDS. The study by the Institute for Democracy inSouth Africa aims to publicize what it calls the disease's silent impact onpolitics and electoral processes of the countries of the Southern AfricanDevelopment Community.
The UnitedNations says the region has only two percent of the world's population, butnearly 70 percent of the 33 million people infected with HIV/AIDS worldwide.
Among thosemost affected are the region's legislators.
The studynotes a growing number of deaths since 1985 among politicians under 50. Local media attribute the deaths to a shortillness or unknown causes, despite the fact that politicians and the wealthygenerally have access to good health care.
For example, between 1984 and 2006, well over halfof all deaths that occurred in the parliament of Zambia are attributed toHIV/AIDS. During that period, there were 146 by-elections, compared to only 14within a decade of independence in 1964.
The report says inZimbabwe, death has now become the biggest cause of vacancies in parliament.Between 2004 and 2007, IDASA found that more than half of the by-elections heldwere due to MPs dying from undisclosed illnesses. The report says the numerousby-elections have worked against the opposition. In some cases it has lost aslim majority of the polls, partly because the ruling party has more resourcesfor campaigning.
The study notes that most legislative bodies havenot publicly addressed the issue. However, the speaker ofMalawi's parliament announced eight years ago that AIDS was responsiblefor 28 of the 31 legislators that had died between 1994 and 2000.
KondwaniChirambo is one of the authors of the study that looks at conditionsin Namibia, Malawi, Tanzania, South Africa, Senegal and Zambia, Lesotho, andZimbabwe.
"Thereis tension between disease and power," says Chirambo. "Politicians will tell you once the [news]gets out, their own party can marginalize them, and the opposition can use HIVas a weapon in the electoral process."
"There is not a single member ofparliament [in the region] that lives [openly] with HIV/AIDS despite thestatistics," he continues. "[Because of the stigma],we know of only one [local government] counselor in South Africa [who ispublicly] living with HIV/AIDS. Nolegislator in [southern Africa] will admit to [carrying] HIV ... They will only talk about beingHIV-negative."
Chirambosays the deaths often leave constituents without a representative to press forfunds for local development.
"Incountries like South Africa," he says, "there is an expectation of [improved] servicedelivery, and historically disadvantaged South Africans judge their localgovernments on the performance of their counselor [their local governmentrepresentative]. [Discontent can lead to protests and instability] if thatcounselor dies or is ill and not able to meet the constituency's[expectations]."
Chirambosays there is also a literal price to pay: Funds must be made available toupdate voter lists bloated by the names of dead voters, and in some cases, topay for by-elections to name new legislators. He estimates that about 20,000 voters die every monthin South Africa, where health officials say almost 70 percent of deaths amongpeople under 50 are AIDS-related.
The studysays AIDS has less impact in countries using proportional representation tochoose parliament members, compared to those that elect directly by a simplemajority of voters.
Withproportional representation, when a legislator dies another is chosen from aparty list. But in direct electioncountries, new elections must be called to replace legislators who have died.
The research from Tanzania shows that sixconstituencies on the mainland -- Kisesa, Mbeya Vijijini, Ulanga Mashariki,Kasulu Mashariki, Rahaleo and Kilombero -- had no MPs between 2000 and 2005.Their legislators had died during the 2000-2005 parliamentary sitting and noelections had been held to fill their seats.
HIV / AIDS can also affectpolitical movements. By-elections can also swing the balance of power inparliaments where one party holds a majority by only a slim margin. Some activists say that in South Africa, theillness has disproportionately hit the staff and members of the Inkatha FreedomParty, based in Kwazulu-Natal Province, one of the country's regions hardesthit by HIV/AIDS.
Chirambosuggests some changes for reducing the cost of replacing the legislators inthese systems.