The neutral theory of molecular evolution holds that most evolutionary changes occur at the molecular level, and most of the variation within and between species are due to random genetic drift of mutant alleles that are selectively neutral. The theory applies only for evolution at the molecular level, and is compatible with phenotypic evolution being shaped by natural selection as postulated by Charles Darwin. The neutral theory allows for the possibility that most mutations are deleterious, but holds that because these are rapidly removed by natural selection, they do not make significant contributions to variation within and between species at the molecular level. A neutral mutation is one that does not affect an organism's ability to survive and reproduce. The neutral theory assumes that most mutations that are not deleterious are neutral rather than beneficial. Because only a fraction of gametes are sampled in each generation of a species, the neutral theory suggests that a mutant allele can arise within a population and reach fixation by chance, rather than by selective advantage.
The theory was introduced by the Japanese biologist Motoo Kimura in 1968, and independently by two American biologists Jack Lester King and Thomas Hughes Jukes in 1969, and described in detail by Kimura in his 1983 monograph The Neutral Theory of Molecular Evolution. The proposal of the neutral theory was followed by an extensive "neutralist–selectionist" controversy over the interpretation of patterns of molecular divergence and gene polymorphism, peaking in the 1970s and 1980s.
Neutral theory is frequently used as the null hypothesis, as opposed to adaptive explanations, for describing the emergence of morphological or genetic features in organisms and populations. This has been suggested in a number of areas, including in explaining genetic variation between populations of one nominal species, the emergence of complex subcellular machinery, and the convergent emergence of several typical microbial morphologies.
Origins
While some scientists, such as Freese (1962) and Freese and Yoshida (1965), had suggested that neutral mutations were probably widespread, the original mathematical derivation of the theory had been published by R.A. Fisher in 1930. Fisher, however, gave a reasoned argument for believing that, in practice, neutral gene substitutions would be very rare. A coherent theory of neutral evolution was first proposed by Motoo Kimura in 1968 and by King and Jukes independently in 1969. Kimura initially focused on differences among species; King and Jukes focused on differences within species.
Many molecular biologists and population geneticists also contributed to the development of the neutral theory. The principles of population genetics, established by J.B.S. Haldane, R.A. Fisher, and Sewall Wright, created a mathematical approach to analyzing gene frequencies that contributed to the development of Kimura's theory.
Haldane's dilemma regarding the cost of selection was used as motivation by Kimura. Haldane estimated that it takes about 300 generations for a beneficial mutation to become fixed in a mammalian lineage, meaning that the number of substitutions (1.5 per year) in the evolution between humans and chimpanzees was too high to be explained by beneficial mutations.
Functional constraint
The neutral theory holds that as functional constraint diminishes, the probability that a mutation is neutral rises, and so should the rate of sequence divergence.
When comparing various proteins, extremely high evolutionary rates were observed in proteins such as fibrinopeptides and the C chain of the proinsulin molecule, which both have little to no functionality compared to their active molecules. Kimura and Ohta also estimated that the alpha and beta chains on the surface of a hemoglobin protein evolve at a rate almost ten times faster than the inside pockets, which would imply that the overall molecular structure of hemoglobin is less significant than the inside where the iron-containing heme groups reside.
There is evidence that rates of nucleotide substitution are particularly high in the third position of a codon, where there is little functional constraint. This view is based in part on the degenerate genetic code, in which sequences of three nucleotides (codons) may differ and yet encode the same amino acid (GCC and GCA both encode alanine, for example). Consequently, many potential single-nucleotide changes are in effect "silent" or "unexpressed" (see synonymous or silent substitution). Such changes are presumed to have little or no biological effect.