Less than two months from the country's planned election date, there are several questions being asked about the future of Madagascar. In the first installment of our examination of the Malagasy crisis, we discussed the political obstacles that stand in the way of a long-term solution to the crisis. In this chapter, we will discuss the socio-economic decline of the island; its causes (which are not exactly as clear-cut as some may think); and the solutions that ought to be considered. The Toliara market – from Wikimedia CC-NC-BY 3.0 Political impasse and economic decline The political crisis and the abrupt economic decline of Madagascar are very closely linked. Nevertheless, the four years spent in a deadlock do not fully explain the chronic poverty in the country. The consequences of the political crisis on the population are undeniable. Madagascar is currently the poorest country in the world with 90 percent of its population living on less than two US dollars per day. This transition has already been drawn out over four years and continues on to the detriment of the Madagascan people who are eager for the debate to shift from “who will govern” to “how are we going to get out of this crisis,” as is illustrated in the video below [fr]: The statistics are hard to argue with: the consequences of the political crisis on the people of Madagascar [fr] are tragic and have plunged the majority of the population into an indescribable poverty. The report from the World Bank breaks down [fr] the different areas that have been struck by this crisis: Le nombre d'enfants non scolarisés a peut-être augmenté de plus de 600.000. La malnutrition aiguë des enfants reste un problème critique. Dans certaines zones, elle a augmenté de plus de 50%. De nombreux centres de soins de santé ont été fermés [..] les recettes fiscales sont en baisse, la fraude fiscale a augmenté, et la capacité à maintenir le niveau des dépenses globales est remise en cause [..] 60% de la récolte de riz est menacée. La crise politique représente un obstacle à la mise en place d'une réponse appropriée. The number of out-of-school children has increased, possibly by more than 600,000. Acute child malnutrition remains critical, having increased in some areas by more than 50 percent. Numerous health care centers have closed […] Tax revenues are falling, tax evasion has increased, and the capacity to hold the line on overall spending is strained […] 60 percent of the rice crop is endangered. Here too, the political crisis acts as an impediment to mounting an appropriate response. The crisis (and those responsible for it) has certainly been damaging to the country, but the real underlying causes of the country's economic decline and poverty are not to be found in this debacle. After all, chronic poverty has haunted this country since well before 2009. The causes of the crisis and the foreseeable solutions A study led by Mireille Razafindrakoto, François Roubaud and Jean-Michel Waschberger revisits some 50 years of economic history of Madagascar and attempts to draw out the causes of an apparently persistent economic malaise. The article, which is entitled “L'enigme et le paradoxe” (The Enigma and the Paradox) [fr], states that there are no specifically identifiable causes that can explain the country's decline, but rather, that the cycle of social unrest is due to a fragmentation of classes and an inertia surrounding any idea of progressing to a more inclusive society (A PDF of the full study is available here) [fr]. The Malagasy Enigma: Graph of the GDP Growth of various African countries (courtesy the public presentation of the study) In fact, the study focuses on the natural tendency towards centralization and the tendency of various authorities in Madagascan society to personalize power. This type of appropriation of power, along with the growing exclusivity of the elites in relation to the rest of the country has a tendency give rise to political instability and calls into question the legitimacy of institutions. As the study states [fr]: Il résulte de ces éléments une coupure abyssale entre les élites et la population. Dans les grandes villes, un tout petit groupe de privilégiés bénéficie de conditions de vie qui les rapprochent des citoyens des pays développés (les “élites globalisées”) alors qu'une immense majorité de la population vit à un niveau de subsistance et reste enfermée dans des trappes de pauvreté.