In 2020, Ofqual, the regulator of qualifications, exams and tests in England, produced a grades standardisation algorithm to combat grade inflation and moderate the teacher-predicted grades for A level and GCSE qualifications in that year, after examinations were cancelled as part of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
History
In late March 2020, Gavin Williamson, the secretary of state for education in Boris Johnson's Conservative government, instructed the head of Ofqual, Sally Collier, to "ensure, as far as is possible, that qualification standards are maintained and the distribution of grades follows a similar profile to that in previous years". On 31 March, he issued a ministerial direction under the Children and Learning Act 2009.
Then, in August, 82% of 'A level' grades were computed using an algorithm devised by Ofqual. More than 4.6 million GCSEs in England – about 97% of the total – were assigned solely by the algorithm. Teacher rankings were taken into consideration, but not the teacher-assessed grades submitted by schools and colleges.
On 25 August, Collier, who oversaw the development of Williamson's algorithm calculation, resigned from the post of chief regulator of Ofqual following mounting pressure.
Vocational qualifications
The algorithm was not applied to vocational and technical qualifications (VTQs), such as BTECs, which are assessed on coursework or as short modules are completed, and in some cases adapted assessments were held. Nevertheless, because of the high level of grade inflation resulting from Ofqual's decision not to apply the algorithm to A levels and GCSEs, Pearson Edexcel, the BTEC examiner, decided to cancel the release of BTEC results on 19 August, the day before they were due to be released, to allow them to be re-moderated in line with Ofqual's grade inflation.
The algorithm
Ofqual's Direct Centre Performance model is based on the record of each centre (school or college) in the subject being assessed. Details of the algorithm were not released until after the results of its first use in August 2020, and then only in part.
{ | border="1" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" | Synopsis The examination centre provided a list of teacher predicted grades, called 'centre assessed grades' (CAGs) The students were listed in rank order with no ties. For large cohorts (over 15) With exams with a large cohort; the previous results of the centre were consulted. For each of the three previous years, the number of students getting each grade (A* to U) is noted. A percentage average is taken. This distribution is then applied to the current years students-irrespective of their individual CAG. A further standardisation adjustment could be made on the basis of previous personal historic data: at A level this could be a GCSE result, at GCSE this could be a Key Stage 2 SAT. For small cohorts, and minority interest exams (under 15). The individual CAG is used unchanged
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The formulas
for large schools with
for small schools with
The variables
is the number of pupils in the subject being assessed
is a specific grade
indicates the school
is the historical grade distribution of grade at the school (centre) over the last three years, 2017-19. is the predicted grade distribution based on the class’s prior attainment at GCSEs. A class with mostly 9s (the top grade) at GCSE will get a lot of predicted A*s; a class with mostly 1s at GCSEs will get a lot of predicted Us. is the predicted grade distribution of the previous years, based on their GCSEs. You need to know that because, if previous years were predicted to do poorly and did well, then this year might do the same. is the fraction of pupils in the class where historical data is available. If you can perfectly track down every GCSE result, then it is 1; if you cannot track down any, it is 0. CAG is the centre assessed grade. is the result, which is the grade distribution for each grade at each school .
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Schools were asked to make a fair and objective judgement of the grade they believed a student would have achieved, but in addition to rank the students within each grade. This was because the statistical standardisation process required more granular information than the grade alone. Some examining boards issued guidance on the process of forming the judgement to be used within centres, where several teachers taught a subject. This was to be submitted 29 May 2020.