On 7 November 2021, the Iraqi Armed Forces reported that Prime Minister of Iraq Mustafa Al-Kadhimi survived an assassination attempt that morning. An explosive-laden drone attacked his Baghdad residence while two were shot down. Several members of his security personnel were injured. No one has claimed responsibility, although the general consensus is that it was perpetrated by pro-Iran militias. The assassination attempt was probably connected to the pro-Iran militia supporters who caused the Baghdad clashes 2 days before.
On 8 November, Kadhimi's office released a statement that the perpetrators were the same people who assassinated Nibras Farman, an agent for the Iraqi National Intelligence Service.
Background
Since the American invasion of Iraq, Iraq has been embroiled in a sectarian conflict between Sunni militants and Shi'a militias, deepening tensions between the two communities. The conflict flared up after IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani was assassinated by the US army, leading to numerous attacks on "US troops, Iraqi armed forces and US-aligned forces", including a missile strike on Erbil International Airport.
On October 10, 2021, elections were held in Iraq, resulting in the re-election of Mustafa al-Kadhimi, the election of Mohammed al-Halbousi as parliamentary speaker, who received backing from a significant proportion of Iraq's Sunni population. In contrast, Shi'ite politicians fared much more poorly, with the amount of seats belonging to Shi'ite Islamist parties dropping by two-thirds.
Following the elections, the pro-Iran parties claimed electoral fraud, leading to a constitutional crisis. Just two days before the attack occurred, supporters of pro-Iranian groups tried to storm the Green Zone, throwing stones at the local security forces, who responded by firing tear gas at them and shooting in the air to disperse the crowd (resulting in the death of one to two demonstrators), heating up tensions between Iraq's political movements.
According to Matthew Zais of the Atlantic Council, Iraqi warlord and the head of Asaib Al-Haq, Qais Khazali, had "described previous attacks against Americans and similarly warned the Iraqi Prime Minister" the day before the drones struck.
On 8 November, a pair of anonymous regional officials and some (also anonymous) militia sources told Reuters that the attack was the fault of Shi'te militias such as Kata'ib Hezbollah or Asaib Ahl al-Haq, also alleging that the weapons used by the perpetrators were made in Iran.
Damage inflicted by the attack
Many parts of Kadhimi's home, including his garage, were damaged by the blast, and at least one explosion was documented. Western diplomats reported hearing the noise of gunfire and explosions inside the Green Zone.
Iraqi government agencies described the perpetrators as using "quadcopter" drones; the same type used by Saraya Awliya al-Dam in the 2021 Erbil rocket attacks. Drones are usually used in the region by pro-Iran militias, since they are hard to be attributed to and allow larger militias and Iran to deny responsibility.
Analysis
Hamdi Malik, who has studied the presence of Shi'te militias in Iraq, described it as a "clear message of 'We can create chaos in Iraq, - we have the guns, we have the means'".
Tallha Abdulrazaq, writing for TRT World, wrote that "the attack can be characterized as a failed coup attempt, and as a pointed and explosive message to Kadhimi and anyone else deemed to be an impediment to the Shia militia's gangster rule in Iraq," arguing that it was a warning sign to scare off Iraq's anti-Iran movement.
Two former and one current United States Defense officials expressed doubt that the assassination attempt was directly the fault of Iran, but did agree the attack was most likely committed by Shi'ite militias.
Two writers for the Jean Jaures Society expressed worries that the strike could "plunge back" Iraq "into chaos in a highly flammable regional and internal context".
Reactions
Inside Iraq
: The President of the Republic of Iraq, Barham Salih tweeted that "We [Iraqis] cannot accept that Iraq will be dragged into chaos and a coup against its constitutional system."